Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 10.340180 11.552156 12.909042 14.552694 16.506039 18.773898 21.636809
2025-04-13 8.467140 9.936579 11.703690 14.022149 17.040990 20.923436 26.442531
2025-04-20 8.136722 9.929284 12.213610 15.419657 19.945426 26.348567 36.593249
2025-04-27 7.576512 9.508504 12.076769 15.869088 21.571796 30.296253 45.767414
2025-05-04 6.833586 8.740323 11.349378 15.341489 21.624621 31.815615 51.408070
2025-05-11 6.491699 8.472152 11.267532 15.714819 23.082297 35.871504 63.002394
2025-05-18 6.051864 8.017393 10.857075 15.511494 23.537545 38.255567 72.195803
2025-05-25 5.681393 7.627259 10.497611 15.331176 23.981154 40.692967 82.563900
2025-06-01 5.389182 7.326529 10.241529 15.280242 24.633121 43.683387 95.795958
2025-06-08 5.059648 6.944204 9.822822 14.899724 24.597053 45.204017 105.874934
2025-06-15 4.840584 6.714538 9.625885 14.879357 25.251462 48.426466 123.147149
2025-06-22 4.528489 6.320653 9.132696 14.276088 24.634214 48.499602 130.024370
2025-06-29 4.215896 5.919496 8.618282 13.619827 23.890202 48.288926 136.736843
2025-07-06 3.959716 5.594863 8.211606 13.129603 23.442548 48.778399 147.017751
2025-07-13 4.032331 5.799064 8.708707 14.401945 27.098373 61.634878 228.519897
2025-07-20 3.953941 5.749816 8.761707 14.810038 28.859065 69.864803 304.356934
2025-07-27 3.747459 5.475721 8.397150 14.330896 28.365560 70.667913 333.252740
2025-08-03 3.675596 5.423473 8.426150 14.670003 30.009836 79.560069 451.245609
2025-08-10 3.536097 5.248445 8.218967 14.485355 30.247915 83.466928 538.754638
2025-08-17 3.409224 5.088789 8.029969 14.321523 30.517933 87.685368 651.102525
2025-08-24 3.306023 4.965042 7.900111 14.275233 31.113820 93.626912 827.128046
2025-08-31 3.172160 4.781722 7.647066 13.929219 30.788129 95.406746 949.226076
2025-09-07 3.086188 4.678904 7.541748 13.910689 31.436353 102.154666 1252.208372